Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Business First of Buffalo:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrightr State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the third quarter ofthis year. The Daytonb Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projectefd to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third That would drop employmenrtto 373,900, down from 380,400o in the first quarter of the a 2 percent decline. The hardest-hitr area is one the Daytobn area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employment in the sectodr fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quartert of this year to 36,100 by the thirde quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturingb will be hitin particular, Traynorf said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and servicw employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,1000 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firstr quarter, a 2 percenr drop.
Service employment, which includes financial service, business service, utilities and leisure service, is projected to decreasde to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasant time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expecteed to rise as a part of seasonal to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first quarter, but that is 1,00o jobs fewer than the same time perio last year. One area of employmen t that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthj care.
In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethird quarter, going up to 56,5000 from 56,300 in the firsr quarter. He said the rate of declinre in gross domestic productwill slow, but remaim negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourtuh quarter of this Even when GDP does becomw positive again, it will take some time for employmentr to pick up because it is a lagging indicator of economiv recovery. Traynor said therew is a great deal of uncertaintt still on thenational level, as businessex try to determine the impact of government Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenft is not going away anytime soon.
“This is somethint we’re going to be living with for quitwa while, well into next he said.